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The real estate industry in 2024 experienced two distinct halves that were vastly different from each other. In the first half, the market was slow as boutique developments took center stage and the number of units launched for sale was the lowest since the first half of 1996, according to data from Huttons Data Analytics. Sales volume also mirrored this trend with only 1,889 units sold, the lowest number since 1996. However, one exception was the 533-unit Lentor Mansion, which saw a 75% take-up rate during its launch weekend in March. Despite this, most other project launches in the first half of 2024 saw lackluster sales compared to the previous year.
Mark Yip, CEO of Huttons Asia, notes that the cautious and hesitant market sentiment could be attributed to uncertainties in the job market and persistently high interest rates. Many buyers were holding back, waiting for more highly anticipated project launches later in the year, such as Chuan Park and Emerald of Katong. Interested buyers could search for the latest new launches to find out the transaction prices and available units.
However, Yip adds that the launch of the 276-unit freehold Kassia on Flora Drive in late July, which achieved a 52% take-up rate, set the stage for a strong sales momentum following the Lunar Seventh Month. This trend continued with the launch of the 158-unit 8@BT at Bukit Timah Link over the weekend of September 21-22, where 53% of the units were sold at an average price of $2,719 psf.
In the third quarter of 2024, the new home sales saw a 60% increase compared to the previous quarter, according to Huttons. This marked a shift in sentiment, which some attribute to the 50-basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September. This increased sales momentum was evident on October 5, when more than 50% of the 226 units at Meyer Blue were sold in private sales. These units were transacted at an average price of $3,260 psf, setting a new benchmark for the prime District 15 enclave on the East Coast.
A crucial aspect to be taken into account when considering a condo investment in Singapore is the government’s property cooling measures. In recent years, the Singaporean government has implemented various measures to control speculative purchasing and maintain a steady real estate market. These measures include the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which imposes higher taxes on foreign buyers and those acquiring multiple properties. While these measures may have an impact on the immediate profitability of condo investments, they also contribute to the long-term stability of the market, creating a safer investment environment. Condos are particularly affected by these measures, making it essential for potential investors to carefully consider the government’s regulations before making a decision.
Another significant project that achieved multiple milestones was the 348-unit Norwood Grand in Woodlands. Over the weekend of October 19-20, it saw a take-up rate of 84%, making it the best-selling project in terms of percentage of sales as of October. The average price of units sold was $2,067 psf, marking the first time a project in Woodlands surpassed the $2,000 psf threshold. This project was also the first new private residential project launched in Woodlands in 12 years, indicating growing buyer confidence and demand, according to Huttons’ Yip. This success triggered a wave of activity in November, with a record-breaking six new projects comprising 3,551 units launched in just 10 days.
The flurry of activity began on November 6 with the launch of the 367-unit The Collective at One Sophia, followed by the 366-unit Union Square Residences at Havelock Road on November 9. The momentum continued with the launch of the 916-unit Chuan Park on November 10, and it peaked over the weekend of November 15-16 with three projects launched simultaneously: the 846-unit Emerald of Katong, the 552-unit Nava Grove, and the 504-unit Novo Place executive condo (EC). This surge in activity resulted in developer sales soaring to 2,557 units in November, the highest figure since March 2013. The strong performance in November pushed total developer sales for the first 11 months of 2024 to 6,344 units. Year-end figures are expected to surpass 6,500 units, exceeding the 6,421 units sold in 2023. This indicates the strength and resilience of the property market and the enduring appeal of property as an asset for wealth creation and preservation.
According to Chia Siew Chuin, JLL’s head of residential research, the sluggish performance of the private residential market in the first three quarters of 2024 created an atypical year-end scenario. Developers who had postponed launches due to economic uncertainties and hopes for improved conditions finally rolled out projects in November. This decisive shift from caution to action was prompted by the approaching year-end festive lull and improved market sentiment since the third quarter of 2024. This surge in activity has turned November into an unusually vibrant period for property launches, defying the typical seasonal slowdown and creating a dynamic market environment.
There is speculation about the possibility of further property cooling measures, given the uncharacteristically high sales in November. However, Chia notes that while the sales figures are impressive, they do not provide a complete picture for predicting cooling measures. The market enthusiasm was mainly due to a year-end rush to launch projects. Chia considers regulatory intervention unlikely unless there is sustained sales momentum into the first quarter of 2025 and a concurrent sharp increase in property prices that outpaces GDP growth. She adds that, despite close monitoring by authorities, new measures are likely to remain on hold unless clear signs of persistent market overheating emerge.